Pep says City shouldn't 'adapt'… but is he right?

Pep Guardiola says Manchester City do not need to change after his side’s winless run extended to six games – but is he right?

Everybody knows the situation, we don’t have to adapt anything. Tomorrow [Wednesday] we have to train, recovery then prepare the next game. We have two or three days to prepare for that and go for it.

City became the first team in Champions League history to throw away a three-goal lead after the 75th minute – having already suffered five defeats on the bounce before their late collapse against Feyenoord.

City are now eight points adrift from Liverpool in the Premier League table and languish in 15th spot in the Champions League table.

In the Premier League, City’s current tally of 23 points after 12 games ranks as Pep’s second-worst start to a campaign after 2020/21 when his side had only 20 points but were still crowned champions come May – a warning to the doubters.

So, is City’s alarming collapse in form just a blip? Will Pep’s side find their customary groove as they enter the festive period? Or, have fine cracks grown into glaring fractures?

Toothless attack?

City are scoring fewer goals than ever before under Guardiola this term, when factoring in the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup – but the underlying data suggests good times could return to the Etihad soon.

The Cityzens are averaging exactly two goals per game across those three competitions this term – notably down on the 2.68 recorded in 2018/19.

However, City are registering around 2.2 expected goals per game – which is their average over the past three title-winning campaigns.

Arguably, it would be unfair to point a finger at Erling Haaland: the Norway international tops the domestic goal chart with 12 goals and trails only Robert Lewandowski on the European stage with five goals.

But, the 24-year-old has registered slightly fewer goals than expected this term according to expected goals – after outgunning all forecasts in his record-breaking, inaugural campaign.

That marginal differential would be unlikely to affect his side too much. Indeed, Haaland’s expected goal numbers reflect the opportunities he creates at such an early stage of the season. The problem is the lack of team-mates stepping up when their No 9 misfires.

Haaland has scored more than half of City’s goals in the Premier League this season; that ratio was just 28 per cent last term.

Leaky defence?

City’s uncustomary, leaky defence appears to be the key issue afflicting Pep’s struggling champions.

The chart below reveals City have shipped more goals, registered more expected goals against and faced more shots on target than in any other season over the past nine campaigns.

Additionally, the City machine is creaking with mistakes, registering six errors leading to goals in the Premier League and Champions League this term – two more than the entirety of last season.

The graphic below reveals how easily opponents have played through City in each Premier League season since 2017/18. Guardiola’s side appeared faultless until 2021/22, but permeable ‘red flag’ areas started to emerge in 2022/23 and this season represents City’s weakest backline under Guardiola.

The graphic below reveals City’s rolling average for expected goals scored (in green) and conceded (in red). The current surge in expected goals against is unprecedented under Guardiola’s tenure – allowing opponents to create more high-quality chances than they are generating themselves.

City past peak?

Manchester City have the 14th-oldest average starting XI in the Premier League this season, which isn’t notably alarming given rivals Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle all register older ages – but the proportion of older players could be a concern.

More than half of City’s 20 most-used players this season are aged 29 or over, with returnee Ilkay Gundogan clocking 1,047 minutes across the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup at 34 years of age.

Kyle Walker has notched 660 minutes at 34, while talisman Kevin De Bruyne’s injury-laden start to the campaign has restricted the Belgian to just 462 minutes at the age of 33.

Indeed, City have handed a league-high proportion of game-time to players aged 29 or over. In contrast, Chelsea sit one place and one point shy of City in the Premier League table but have not handed one minute to a player aged 29 or over.

Seeing Kyle Walker beaten for pace against Timo Werner during City’s 4-0 drubbing against Tottenham was almost as shocking as City’s collapse in form, but the 34-year-old’s afterburners have been easing off in recent years – winding down from a sustained 34km/h average top speed.

Pep’s side have overcome slower starts in the past. However, the stats highlight numerous red flags and Guardiola’s ‘juggernauts’ will be looking to silence the critics and slash the gap to five points when they travel to Anfield on Sunday.