As we trudge through the last month of winter and enter into early spring, warmer-than-average temperatures could invade much of the U.S. except the Northwest, according to an outlook released Thursday by The Weather Company and Atmospheric G2.
Here’s the big picture: Above-average temperatures are expected from the Southwest across much of the Plains and East from February to April. This includes much of the South, which is most likely to see warmer-than-average temperatures.
In contrast, those in the Northwest and parts of the Northern Plains could see cooler-than-average temperatures as we move into the spring.
Now, let’s take a look at each of the next three months in more detail.
February: The weak La Niña that peaked in January will continue to leave its impression on the temperature outlook for the last month of winter as it begins to subside.
The below-average forecast for parts of the Northwest and Northern Plains in contrast with the milder temperatures expected across much of the South reflect the pattern that typically emerges during a La Niña event.
Above-average temperatures will be more than welcome across parts of the southern tier that have been plagued with colder-than-usual temperatures and record-setting snow in January.
However, February could still have some tricks up its sleeve.
“Historically, cold Januaries are not followed by very warm Februaries”, according to Todd Crawford, Vice President of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2.
With this month being the coldest January to date since 2014, there is certainly a colder risk to the forecast below as winter comes to an end.
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March: As winter makes the handoff to spring, milder-than-average temperatures are expected to take over much of the country.
All but a handful of states could see above-average temperatures take over by March with the bullseye expected to shift further west, focused in the Southwest and Southern Plains.
But for those in the Northwest, it’s not time to put away that winter coat just yet. Temperatures are still expected to lean colder than average, leaving you shivering at the start of the spring.
The negative phase of the Pacific-North American pattern can be thanked for these colder-than-average temperatures. This phase typically emerges on the backside of a weak La Niña, according to Crawford, for the most part confining cool temperatures to the Northwest.
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April: There isn’t much change in our outlook as we move into the height of spring.
Colder-than-average temperatures start to retreat from the Northwest, leaving a thin swath of the northern tier with a slightly below-average outlook. Cooler temperatures are also expected to creep into New England by April.
But as for the rest of the country, above-average temperatures will likely continue to dominate, providing a beacon of hope for those tired of layering up and scraping ice off their windshields.
Caitlin Kaiser graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with both an undergraduate and graduate degree in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences before starting her career as a digital meteorologist with weather.com.
