Welcome to The Radar, a Sky Sports column in which Nick Wright uses a blend of data and opinion to shed light on need-to-know stories from up and down the Premier League. This week:
🔵 Jackson showing his value and potential
💨 Werner’s off-the-ball running analysed
🔍 Man City’s vulnerability from fast breaks
Jackson outscoring Drogba for Chelsea
Nicolas Jackson goes into Chelsea’s clash with Manchester United on Super Sunday having reached 20 Premier League goals against Newcastle. Only five players have hit the milestone in fewer than his 44 appearances for the club. Didier Drogba is not one of them.
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Drogba needed 50 games to reach the 20-goal mark and while Jackson has much to do to even come close to matching his achievements in a Chelsea shirt, his superior scoring rate, at only 23, underlines his value and potential. At the same age, Drogba was still playing for Le Mans in France’s second tier.
Jackson’s youthfulness leaves room for improvement but he has come a long way already. He arrived from Villarreal last year with only 16 top-flight starts behind him. For much of last season, he had to manage the pressure of being Chelsea’s only available striker.
The circumstances were challenging but he produced an encouraging debut campaign, after overcoming a difficult start, and his progress has accelerated in the new one. Only Cole Palmer, Mohamed Salah, Erling Haaland and Bukayo Saka have registered more goal involvements this term.
Nicolas Jackson’s productivity has increased this season
His rate of productivity has nearly doubled. Last season, he averaged a goal or assist every 148 minutes in the Premier League, with 14 and five respectively. This term, that figure stands at just 77, his six goals and three assists coming from only 695 minutes played.
It is little wonder that, despite being three years Jackson’s senior at 26, Christopher Nkunku is finding it so difficult to unseat him. The France international has only started one Premier League game this season. Jackson’s continued improvement means his wait for more playing time is likely to go on for longer.
Werner’s unseen work for Spurs
After a difficult start to the season, featuring a string of high-profile misses, Timo Werner finally opened his account for the campaign with an emphatic opener in Tottenham’s 2-1 victory over Manchester City in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday night.
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Watch highlights of Tottenham’s Carabao Cup win over Man City
The goal was only his third in 26 appearances since his arrival from RB Leipzig in January. His numbers were also modest during his spell at Chelsea, where he scored 23 times in 89 games. But Ange Postecoglou perseveres with him and there are reasons behind it.
His erratic finishing is of course a source frustration to Spurs supporters, as it was to those of Chelsea, but even when he is not scoring, Werner contributes a lot. His defensive industry is an asset. His off-the-ball running in the final third is even more valuable.
Timo Werner ranks second for off-the-ball runs in the final third
Tracking data from Second Spectrum shows that only former Liverpool forward Roberto Firmino, a player famed for the quality of his movement, has averaged more off-the-ball runs per 90 minutes than Werner across the last five Premier League seasons.
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As with Firmino, that volume highlights Werner’s selflessness. He makes his runs not just to put himself in scoring positions but to stretch opposition defences and create space for others.
One such run led to a goal the last time Spurs faced Sunday’s opponents Aston Villa in March. By driving towards the back post, Werner occupied Matty Cash, ensuring Heung-Min Son had room to dispatch Dejan Kulusevski’s cut-back in the 4-0 win.
Timo Werner’s back-post run ensured Matty Cash could not step up to mark Heung-Min Son
Werner’s willingness to put in the hard yards for the team is not lost on Postecoglou. Judging by the way in which he was mobbed following his goal on Wednesday night at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, it is appreciated by his team-mates too. He will doubtless relish the opportunity to test Villa’s high line on Sunday.
Man City’s Walker reliance is an issue
Tottenham became the latest side to get in behind Manchester City’s defence in their Carabao Cup win on Wednesday. The first example came with Werner’s opener in the fifth minute. He should have had another when put through again in the second half.
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The Football Show’s Nick Wright and Will Perry break down the stats highlighting Man City’s vulnerability from quick counter-attacks
The two chances had different outcomes but came in similar style, with Spurs able to cut through City by attacking directly, and at speed, as they did throughout. Although the loss was City’s first of the campaign, this vulnerability from fast breaks has been a theme.
Amazingly, Pep Guardiola’s side have allowed seven more shots from fast breaks than any other Premier League side in all competitions, with 24. They are fortunate only three of them have resulted in goals but that total is still the joint-highest among Premier League sides.
It is uncharacteristic. City are facing nearly three times as many shots from fast breaks as last season, their average up from 0.6 per game to 1.6 this term. So why is it happening?
The loss of Rodri from midfield is a factor but it is worth noting that, before his knee injury, he started one of the games in which the issue was most apparent, the goalless draw with Inter in September in which City gave up four shots from fast breaks.
Kyle Walker’s absence is probably more pertinent. His recovery pace has become crucial in mopping up danger behind City’s high defensive line. Due to injury, however, he has only started four games this season. And even he has been unable to solve the issue.
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Adama Traore outsprinted Kyle Walker with ease in a foot race for the ages
Consider the game against Fulham in October, one City were fortunate to win. Marco Silva’s side caused huge problems from counters that day, with Walker easily outpaced by Adama Traore. He is not the first defender to suffer that fate, of course, but his struggles were a reminder of his advancing years.
At 34, and increasingly troubled by fitness issues, he is not solution he once was behind City’s defensive line. On Saturday against Bournemouth, a side with more shots from fast breaks than any other since the start of last term, they risk further punishment.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend?
Winless Wolves go up against Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace on Saturday Night Football, with coverage starting at 5pm on Sky Sports Premier League ahead of the 5.30pm kick-off time.
The Super Sunday double-header begins with Tottenham’s meeting with Aston Villa, live on Sky Sports Premier League from 1pm ahead of the 2pm kick-off time, then it’s to Old Trafford as Manchester United face Chelsea under interim boss Ruud van Nistelrooy, with kick-off at 4.30pm.
It’s a west London derby on Monday Night Football as Fulham face Brentford. Coverage starts on Sky Sports Premier League at the earlier time of 6pm ahead of the 8pm kick-off
Read last week’s Radar
Last week’s column looked at why Andre Onana merits reappraisal at Man Utd. There was also a focus on the exciting Ethan Nwaneri at Arsenal and Alexander Isak’s supposed finishing issues at Newcastle.
