After an agonising midweek of bad beats, Jones Knows is hoping to punish the bookmakers with his weekend 6/1 treble.
How did we get on in midweek?
Punters are the kings at talking through their pocket. No group of people do it better. So pardon the frustration that’s about to let rip regarding the two losing bets from the midweek action. Somehow both 8/1 shots lost.
I should be sitting here writing with a spring in my step of +16 points of profit, instead it was a -2 return despite winning angles galore.
Let’s start with the 8/1 treble of Luton to win five or more corners, both teams to score ‘no’ in Everton and Fulham and Curtis Jones to have two or more shots vs Chelsea. Luton won five corners in the first 35 minutes – boom – Everton and Fulham finished 0-0 – boom – so we were looking pretty heading into Liverpool vs Chelsea. In game where Liverpool dominated and had 28 shots, Jones somehow managed just one. Bet down.
Now, those that followed me in on the second bet of Luton to win eight or more corners vs Brighton at 8/1 will be feeling similar pain. As referenced, Luton were winning corners for fun in their battering of Brighton. On 55 minutes, they were sitting on seven corners and still creating attacking opportunities. The 8/1 shot had become a 1/5 shot, probably shorter.
We needed just one corner. Just one. The time ticked by. There were deflections that rolled close to the by-line and ricochets near the corner flag. But no more Luton corners were won. Bet down.
This game, eh? She can be a cruel mistress.
P+L = -4.5
1pt treble on Crystal Palace double chance vs Brighton, 11 or more corners in Newcastle vs Luton & 50+ booking points in Sheffield United vs Aston Villa (6/1 with Sky Bet)
Brighton’s complete capitulation at Luton perhaps shouldn’t have come as a surprise. Roberto De Zerbi’s side have won just three of their last 16 Premier League games, scoring just 20 goals in that period. Only Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer. That’s now beginning to become a healthy sample size – and it’s backed up by a drastic decline of their attacking metrics under De Zerbi.
Since beating Bournemouth in September, Brighton’s goals, expected goals, shots and big chances created per 90 have plummeted compared to where they were towards the back end of last season. Palace have the tools to frustrate and leave the Amex with a result at a bulky 11/10 with Sky Bet.
Corners simply have to be backed in Newcastle vs Luton. I’ve been waiting for the Toon to return to form with eyes firmly fixed on their corner count lines and now is the time to back them following their very impressive performance at Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, regular readers know all about my obsession with Luton’s ability to win corners. They racked up seven at home to Brighton, taking their tally to 49 corners in their last six fixtures. I’m fully expecting both teams to play with confidence and attacking intent, so corner winning opportunities should be rife at both ends. Backing 11 or more should go close at 4/5 with Sky Bet.
To complete the treble, I’m hoping for referee Paul Tierney to be in fussy mood after a week in the spotlight when he takes charge of Sheffield United vs Aston Villa. All six of Sheffield United’s recent home games have seen the 50+ bookings points land as Chris Wilder has installed a more aggressive approach. Meanwhile, every one of Aston Villa’s last 11 Premier League games have seen 40+ total booking points with seven of those producing 50+ or more.
Remember we get the bonus of a red card counting for 25 booking points towards that total, too, if one is shown. The 4/5 on 50+ booking points looks a winner in waiting to me.
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