Our tipster Jones Knows provides his betting insight and analysis across all 10 Premier League games as he hunts some value in Sky Bet’s markets.
Everton vs Tottenham, Saturday 12.30pm
I’m losing faith with Everton, who look to be running out of steam and confidence in front of goal.
It’s now just four goals scored in their last nine games. Sean Dyche’s team are surely going to need to score twice to win this one as Spurs are reliable at finding the net having scored in their last 34 Premier League games. The away side look fair enough at 4/6 with Sky Bet on the draw no bet market.
I’m heading for the player offsides market though for a better angle in where Dominic Calvert-Lewin is worth an interest at 3/1 with Sky Bet to be caught offside two or more times. The Spurs offside trap isn’t quite Aston Villa levels of bravery but they squeeze the game very aggressively too – as shown by their per 90 average of 3.6 offsides against over their last 15 Premier League games.
Calvert-Lewin will be tasked with playing on that line, being the target of Everton’s direct balls forward.
No team have attempted more long passes this season (1,366) and only Liverpool have attempted more passes into the opposition half than Everton (1,424) – two key pointers towards direct play into the attacker. Calvert-Lewin himself has been flagged offside 10 times in his last nine starts whilst opposition centre-forwards Ivan Toney and Rasmus Hojlund both were flagged twice in Tottenham’s last two games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Brighton vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Brighton’s complete capitulation at Luton perhaps shouldn’t have come as a surprise.
Roberto De Zerbi’s side have won just three of their last 16 Premier League games, scoring just 20 goals in that period. Only Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United have scored fewer in the same timeframe. That’s now beginning to become a healthy sample size – and it’s backed up by a drastic decline of their attacking metrics under De Zerbi.
Since beating Bournemouth in September, Brighton’s goals, expected goals, shots and big chances created per 90 have plummeted compared to where they were towards the back end of last season.
Roy Hodgson knows exactly how to play the frustration game on Brighton’s style having restricted them to just four goals in his last five games against them as Palace boss. Six of the last nine meetings between these two have finished 1-1 whilst all those encounters, bar one, have fallen under the 2.5 goals line. Palace look a great bet to avoid defeat in the double chance market at 11/10 with Sky Bet. A Palace win to nil at 9/1 also shouldn’t be sniffed at.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Crystal Palace double chance (11/10 with Sky Bet)
Burnley vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Fulham are due a win at Burnley.
Somehow the Clarets have remained unbeaten in the last 31 matches at Turf Moor in all competitions, winning 25 times. It’s a run that spans 73 years. Remarkable. Thoughts with the Fulham fans out there that regularly make the journey there.
This might be the game though to break the hoodoo. Sky Bet have them at 7/5 to pick up three points – that’s a 42 per cent chance. Remember, Burnley, albeit improving, have the worst home record in the Premier League, winning just four points from 11 games, losing nine. Away win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Newcastle vs Luton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Sign me up for the total corner count.
When Newcastle are at their best, they are a corner-winning machine. They won 270 corners last season in the Premier League, the most of any team. I’ve been waiting for them to return to form with eyes firmly fixed on their corner count lines and now is the time to back them following their very impressive performance at Aston Villa.
Meanwhile, regular readers know all about my obsession with Luton’s ability to win corners. They racked up seven at home to Brighton, taking their tally to 49 corners in their last six fixtures. I’m fully expecting both teams to play with confidence and attacking intent, so corner-winning opportunities should be rife at both ends.
Premier League games are averaging 10.6 corners per 90 minutes this season, up on last year’s average of 10.1, probably owing to the extra added time. This game should surpass that number, therefore the 5/6 with Sky Bet on 11 or more corners in the match being awarded rates as a fantastic value play. As do 14 or more (3/1), 15 or more (9/2) and 16 or more (7/1) – all of which look likely to give you a great run at nice prices.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 11 or more total match corners (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Sheffield United vs Aston Villa, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
My needle barometer is pointing towards high chance of cards and chaos under the Bramall Lane lights. This is a fixture with a recent trend of spice, with six yellow cards in a tetchy reverse game and red cards shown to Jon Egan and Phil Jagielka in the previous two encounters. If Sheffield United can stay in the game, frustrations in the away ranks may grow.
I want to back cards.
The yellow card count in Premier League matches remain at a record high levels of 4.47 per 90.
There has been a slight drop off compared to August and September as referees have become a little more lenient when it comes to timewasting but the overall average yellows per 90 for October onwards is still a healthy 4.32.
All six of Sheffield United’s recent home games have seen the 50+ bookings points land as Chris Wilder has installed a more aggressive approach.
Meanwhile, every one of Aston Villa’s last 11 Premier League games have seen 40+ total booking points with seven of those producing 50+ or more. Remember we get the bonus of a red card counting for 25 booking points towards that total, too, if one is shown. The 5/6 with Sky Bet for 50+ booking points is a lovely slice of value with also the higher lines of 60+ (15/8) and 70+ (9/4) also worth a second look.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: 50+ booking points (4/5 with Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm
Nottingham Forest’s key to success under Nuno Espirito Santo will be how successful their counter-attacking game works, especially away from home as shown in their impressive win at Newcastle. That doesn’t bode well for them for this encounter though as they are up against a Bournemouth side that are notoriously hard to counter-attack. The Cherries have shipped just 1.38 worth of expected goals from fast breaks this season – it’s the third best record in the Premier League when it comes to that metric. Forest may struggle to cause problems.
Adding Dominic Solanke to score to a home win considering he’s found the net 10 times in last 11 appearances in all competitions makes sense at 6/4 with Sky Bet should provide punters with a good run.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Chelsea vs Wolves, Sunday 2pm
I don’t want any part of the 4/7 with Sky Bet on a Chelsea win.
Can you trust them to get back on a positive footing following such a lacklustre and timid performance at Liverpool? I certainly can’t especially against a Wolves side that beat them 2-1 over the Christmas period.
Gary O’Neil’s side do carry a big threat in the final third to the extent they’ve scored 33 goals this season – that’s two more than they managed in the whole of last season. The three they got in their defeat to Manchester United makes it 18 goals scored in their last eight matches.
Wolves’ goal threat isn’t really being respected by the market with Pedro Neto and Matheus Cunha both priced up at 4/1 to score. That looks generous in a game Wolves are capable of avoiding defeat in.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Manchester United vs West Ham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
West Ham are sixth in the Premier League and have lost just one of their last 11 Premier League games.
Yet there is clear discontent in the stands – for good reason too.
West Ham’s underlying performance metrics this season scream ‘overachievement’ loud and clear. Based on expected goals for and against, equated into points won, West Ham have 11 points more than their performance data shows. The addition of Kalvin Phillips has only provided David Moyes with more problems to contend with in terms of his balance in midfield.
I was expecting Manchester United to be shorter than the 3/5 with Sky Bet on offer considering their increased productivity in front of goal since Christmas, scoring 10 in their last four games and Rasmus Hojlund looking the part as the focal point. Home win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Arsenal vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Huge. A Super Sunday to savour.
A win for Liverpool may catapult them into title favourites with Sky Bet and would end Arsenal’s hopes of landing the main prize. Jurgen Klopp will know that. He’s not one to shirk such opportunities either. Liverpool will be Liverpool.
The jeopardy is huge for Arsenal, who are still to prove they possess the attacking metrics to mix it with Manchester City and Klopp’s men at the business end of this season. It looks a two-horse race to me.
What’s the bet then?
It must be a pro-Liverpool angle based on their attacking metrics of late, where they’ve averaged 22.5 shots per 90 minutes in their last 11 matches. And despite him letting us down for the 8/1 best bet treble in midweek, I’m keeping the faith with Curtis Jones and his shots prices. He’s had 22 shots in his last eight fixtures. The 2/1 with Sky Bet on him firing two or more does make plenty of appeal.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Manchester City, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
This won’t be a straightforward night for Pep Guardiola’s side but those taking them on at 4/11 with Sky Bet are likely to end up with burnt fingers such is their focus and supreme reliability at this time of year. City won 14 of 15 Premier League games between the 22nd-36th Premier League gameweeks last season. This is their time.
My punting instincts have taken me to the player fouls market where Ruben Dias rates as a fair wager to make two or more fouls at 100/30 with Sky Bet. The Brentford front two of Neal Maupay and Ivan Toney bring the nuisance factor to the table in that they are very smart at winning fouls.
Since being paired together in their last two fixtures, they’ve won 12 fouls between them. It’s a ratio that should stay consistent so it certainly brings Dias into the mix in terms of his foul probability. He’s made two or more fouls in seven of his last 13 starts, making 17 fouls in total. He will fight fire with fire up against the Brentford duo. He’s a big price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3
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