Jones Knows sprinkles his betting insight and analysis for Thursday’s Premier League action…
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Liverpool vs Sheffield United, Thursday 7.30pm
I’m a little confused at why Mohamed Salah is 2/5 with Sky Bet to score anytime and Luis Diaz is 11/8.
I’d have them around the same price on current form but obviously the bookmaker algorithms have spat out the rather chunky price on Diaz.
In a turgid betting heat where a one-sided game looks on the cards, the Diaz anytime price looks one to focus on.
The Colombian has netted seven times in his last 12 starts. In that timeframe he’s had, wait for it, 50 shots to an average of 4.1 per 90 minutes with 19 of those hitting the target.
The market is expecting Liverpool to score at least three goals here so it doesn’t really add up that Diaz is given a 42 per cent implied probability of scoring at least one of them – my figures have it closer to 55 per cent. It looks a cracking price.
SCORE PREDICTION: 5-0
Chelsea vs Manchester United, Thursday 8.15pm
Two very untrustworthy teams.
The performance from Manchester United at Brentford was one which will be hard to forget for everyone associated with the club. They played with the usual mis-shapen structure without the ball as per but they added a lack of work ethic to their output. I’m not sure there’s any way back for Erik ten Hag now – even the players played like it for large parts of that game.
The new hierarchy at United are very analytically aware and are recruiting people into positions of authority, like Dan Ashworth, who will want to make big decisions based on data analysis. And I think that leaves Ten Hag very vulnerable over the summer based on their woeful underlying metrics.
Chelsea should win this one. But attacking their corner count is a safer way of getting them in the book.
Brentford’s corner line was set at six or more on Saturday vs United – they hammered it, winning 14, which would have been bordering on a 100/1 shot. United’s nine-game average of corners conceded now stands at 8.6 per 90 minutes after that Brentford landslide.
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Sky Sports’ Peter Smith and Melissa Reddy discuss Manchester United’s woeful performance against Brentford and whether Erik ten Hag has the backing of the board to lead the Red Devils forward into the 2024-2025 season
I think the Chelsea total corners line is a play with seven or more available at 11/10 with Sky Bet. But we can be greedy. I wouldn’t put people off the bigger lines too with 10 or more ripe for a bet at 11/2.
